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The implications of EU accession for Turkey; The internal effects on migration, trade and agriculture.
Methodology
Information for this brief was gathered on the Internet from various sources including the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Fact Book, CountryReports.org, Turkish and Polish Authorities.
From that information this brief was prepared on the economic impact of EU's accession for Turkey based on a comparison of trends between Turkey and Poland and the EU. We will first explore an overview of the impact of the human population in the EU, then the impact of the as well and the impact of potential economic, political, cultural, natural resources and natural disasters on the EU.
Migration
EU's accession for Turkey would introduce another 65 million people into the European Union. Of this 65 million 99.8% are Muslim and .02% and Christian and Jewish. The languages spoken are Turkish, Kurdish, Armenian, Arabic, Georgian and Greece. There are currently around 3 million Turkish immigrants living in the EU with the largest population living in German, France and The Netherlands[arg1] . Because of the lack of economic opportunity in Turkey, one would expect the migration to the EU would increase in the short term, especially in those countries where the largest populations are already living such as German and France. If we are to follow previous trends in migration of this group we could expect that men will come first, followed by there family members once they have achieved some economic stability. We would also expect that they would be living in previously established ethnic communities largely because they have shown a previous lack of ability to master the language skills of their host countries because of their religious differences and because Turks have had very little cultural co-existence with Europeans. However, with in increase in economic opportunities within Turkish after accession to the EU and with freedom of movement across borders one can also expect that many of these migrants will return to Turkey to take part in new economy in the long term.
In comparison, Polish migration into West Europe before the fall of the iron curtain, was strictly controlled. Polish immigration to Western Europe [arg2] was restricted to those who could traverse the physical and political barriers. After the fall of the iron curtain in the late 1980's most of those migrating from Eastern Europe were ethnic Germans and religious minorities primarily Jews. These migrants had both cultural and religious connections to the European community and integrated well into the society. Again Germany remained the preferred country of migration.
Unlike Polish immigrants to West Europe who have in common their religion and cultural co-existence, it can be postulated that in the future ethnic Turks will continue to segregate themselves in already established Turkish communities.
Trade
Since the establishment of the Customs Union in 1995, Turkey exports to the EU have largely been concentrated in the textiles and industrial goods. Public sector procurement and agriculture have not as yet been included in this agreement, however the parties are negotiating on these issues and eventually there will be a free trade agreement will be established. The EU is currently ranks number one for Turkey's exports at 54.6% and imports from the EU markets represent about 44%. In addition to the Customs Union, Turkey has signed free trade agreements with most of the Eastern European nations.
In comparison to the trade relations between Poland and the EU, trade with Poland has largely been between Germany and Poland. Imports and exports have been concentrated in the plants and machinery vehicles, and base metals to Germany. Likewise Germany exports plants and machinery vehicles, chemicals and plastics to Poland. Germany represents about a 33% of Poland's trade relations with the EU followed by France, the Czech Republic and the United States. Germany is also heavily invested in the Polish economy.
Clearly Turkey has much more to offer the EU as a whole in terms of trade than Poland. Turkey's market for imported goods from the EU greater and their exported goods will include agricultural goods and public sector procurement in the future. In addition Turkey's natural resources include developed coal, steel, cooper.
Agriculture
Tobacco, cotton, grain, olives, sugar beets, pulse, citrus; livestock are the major agricultural products in Turkey. However, agriculture in Turkey is largely based on traditional methods. Still Turkey remains a country that is completely self-sufficient with regard to its food needs. It also has more land than any country in West European that can be used for farming. It currently uses only 36% of its available land for farming. More than 45% of the population is engaged in farming activities.
The proliferation of agriculture is expected to increase with the completion of the Southeastern Anatalian Project. This project will create several dams and hydroelectric power plants, which will increase irrigation capacity to the more remote area of Turkey.
In this regard the benefits of EU accession of Turkey into the European far outweigh the agricultural resources of Poland. Agriculture represents only 3.6% of Poland's GDP. Poland's agricultural sector is severely hindered by infrastructure problems and a lack of new frontiers to be exploited.
Conclusion
While Poland definitely has both cultural and political commonality with the traditional EU countries, Turkey brings a wealth of economic opportunities to the EU. While one can expect an initial increase in migration from Turkey into the rest of the EU after admission, this will probably decrease over time as the Turkish economy develops. One might even expect that many of those Turks who have immigrated in the past to return to Turkey and take part in its new political and economic development.
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Bibliograpy
http://www.un.org/popin/confcon/milan/plen3/3rdplen.html
http://www.ethnopolitics.org/archive/volume_II/issue_1/dietz.pdf
European Institute for Research on Mediterranean and Euro-Arab Cooperation with the support of the European Commission http://www.medea.be/?page=10&lang=en&doc=339
Bilateral Trade Relations Turkey August 2002 http://forum.kusadasi.biz/thread359.html
The CIA World Factbook http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/tu.html
http://www.deik.org.tr/bultenler/2003320153817sectors-agriculture-june02.pdf
http://www.poland.pl/
http://www.ethnopolitics.org/archive/volume_II/issue_1/dietz.pdf
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